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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 May 05 1230 UTC.
Solar Activity
24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels during the period. Region 2535 (N07W75, plage) produced a C1 flare at 04/1351 UTC. A Type II radio sweep (est. shock speed 560 km/s) and CME were associated with this event. As previously mentioned, analysis indicted an Earth-directed component was unlikely. Another impulsive C1/1n flare was observed at 04/2248 UTC from newly numbered region 2542 (N10E63, Cso/beta). An associated CME was first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at approximately 04/2324 UTC, but was deemed too far north and east to have an impact at Earth. Region 2536 (N14W58, Cso/beta) exhibited overall decay and remained inactive. Region 2539 (N16W22, Cro/beta) remained stable and quiet throughout the period. Region 2541 (N04E33, Dso/beta) showed signs of decay early in the period, but observed slight regeneration in its leader spots near the end of the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with C-class flares likely throughout the forecast period (05-07 May), primarily due to the increased flare potential of new Region 2542.
Energetic Particle
24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, reaching a maximum flux reading of 5,376 pfu at 04/1705 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on days one and two of the forecast period (05-06 May). On day three (07 May), the arrival of the expected CIR should cause a redistribution of the energetic particles, dropping flux values to low to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected a return to nominal conditions. Solar wind speed began the period near 475 km/s and steadily declined to near 380 km/s by periods end. Total field did experience a gradual increase from 3 nT at the beginning of the period, to nearly 8 nT by the end. Bz was fairly consistent between +/- 2 nT through approximately 05/0400 UTC when it started to become more variable, oscillating between +/- 6 nT. Phi angle was negative until near 04/1700 UTC, when it switched to a more neutral orientation.
Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain near background conditions for days one and two (05-06 May). By day three (07 May), an enhancement in solar wind parameters is expected with the arrival of a CIR ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS.
Geospace
24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels, with an isolated unsettled period during the 05/0900-1200 UTC synoptic period, likely in response to weak substorming.
Forecast.. The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on days one and two (05-06 May) under a nominal solar wind regime. Unsettled to active conditions are likely on day three (07 May) in response to the arrival of a CIR ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS.
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![Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion - 2016 May 05 20:07 UTC]()
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