[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 May 09 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 May 09 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2541 (N04W22, Axx/alpha) produced the strongest flare of the period, B9/Sf at 09/0523 UTC. The flare appears to be associated with a DSF, centered near S02W03. Further coronagraph imagery is needed to determine if an Earth-directed CME was present.

Region 2542 (N12E10, Cao/beta) remained the largest on the solar disk, developing additional smaller spots in the southern portion of the region. Minor decay was observed in the leader spots of Region 2543 (S05E04, Cro/beta).

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares for the next three days (09-11 May).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 2,800 pfu observed at 09/1200 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase to moderate to high levels on days one and two (09-10 May) due to an enhanced solar wind environment associated with a negative polarity CH HSS. Very high levels are likely on day three (11 May). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE satellite, indicated the influence of a negative CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength steadily decreased from 12 nT to around 5 nT over the past 24 hours. The Bz component of the IMF was variable, with several prolonged intervals of southward Bz. A period of mostly northward field was observed between roughly 09/0030-0700 UTC. Solar wind speeds continued to increase through the day, ranging from 500-600 km/s at the beginning of the period to 600-700 km/s by the periods end. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative (toward) sector.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced on days one and two (09-10 May) under the influence of the equatorial, negative polarity CH HSS. By day three (11 May) a trend towards background conditions are expected as CH HSS effects wane.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at G1 (Minor) storm levels from 08/1200-2100 UTC as the CH HSS continued. An increase to G2 (Moderate) storm levels was observed during the 08/2100-09/0000 UTC synoptic period followed by a further increase to G3 (Strong) storm levels during the 09/0000-0300 UTC synoptic period. Conditions then decreased below G1 (Minor) storm levels as the IMF rotated from a southward to northward orientation.

Forecast.. The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on days one and two (09-10 may) as the CH HSS continues to enhance the solar wind environment. Quiet to active conditions are expected on day three (11 May) as effects from the CH HSS subside.

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