[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 May 11 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 May 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2542 (N11W17, Cai/beta-gamma) displayed slight growth, then dissipation in its southern trailer spots. Region 2543 (S05W21, Dai/beta) saw an increase in intermediate spots and slight growth in overall length, and was responsible for the largest flare of the period, a B5 flare at 11/1059 UTC. Region 2544 (N21E39, Dai/beta) remained relatively unchanged throughout the period, while Region 2545 (S21W02, Cao/beta) developed a few leader spots. All four numbered regions remained mostly inactive throughout the period.

An approximately 15 degree long disappearing solar filament, centered near N16W29, was observed erupting from the solar disk from 11/0211-0321 UTC. Analysis of SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery indicated a trajectory too far north of the Sun-Earth line to have an impact at Earth. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares all three days (11-13 May) primarily due to the flare probabilities of Regions 2542 and 2543.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached very high levels with a peak flux of 54,929 pfu at 10/1515 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at high to very high levels over the next three days (11-13 May) due to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was indicative of waning negative polarity CH HSS influences. Solar wind speeds decreased from an average of approximately 600 km/s to end-of-period speeds near 480 km/s. Total field strength began the period near 6 nT but ended just under 4 nT. The Bz component was variable between +/- 5 nT for the first half of the period before settling in to average +/- 2 nT by periods end. The phi angle was predominantly in a negative sector with isolated, short lived oscillations into the positive sector.

Forecast: Solar wind speed is expected to slowly decrease over day one (11 May) and drop more rapidly on day two (12 May) as the CH HSS begins to rotate out of geoeffective position and its influences wane. Day three (13 May) is expected to see a return to more ambient background conditions.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the remainder of day one (11 May) into day two (12 May) due to continued, but waning, CH HSS effects. Quiet conditions are expected by day three (13 May) under the ambient background environment.

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