[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 May 15 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 May 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels this period due to C-class flare activity. Region 2543 (S05W70, Cro/beta) produced two C4 flares at 14/1519 UTC and 15/0409 UTC which were the largest events observed this period. Region 2544 (N20W08, Dao/beta-gamma) underwent growth this period and increased in magnetic complexity while the remaining active regions were stable or in decay. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for isolated M-class flares (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts) over the next three days (15-17 May).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 2,580 pfu observed at 14/1405 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels over the next three days (15-17 May) in response to elevated geomagnetic field activity.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) (negative to positive) followed by the likely onset of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR). Solar wind speeds began a steady increase from around 300 km/s to just under 500 km/s between 14/1645-15/1000 UTC. Total field strength values (Bt) became enhanced after 14/1645 UTC and reached a peak of around 14 nT mid-period. Bz was mostly neutral or northward throughout the period but briefly reached -13 nT mid-period. The phi angle transitioned from a negative solar sector to a positive sector after 14/1630 UTC with some variability observed between 14/1930-2345.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on day one through day three (15-17 May) as Earth transitions from CIR to positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence. Total field enhancements near 15 nT followed by an increase in solar wind speeds to around 575 km/s is expected based on STEREO A MAG and PLASTIC data.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to the influence of a SSBC followed by the onset of a CIR.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 May) due to the continued influence of a CIR followed by the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS late in the period. Continued CH HSS influence is expected to cause periods of active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms on day two (16 May) and unsettled to active levels on day three (17 May).

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