[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 May 18 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 May 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels during the period. Region 2544 (N20W48, Cao/beta) remained relatively unchanged during the period, but did manage to produce the largest flare of the period, a B4 flare at 17/2011 UTC. Region 2546 (S07E25, Cho/beta) persisted as the largest spot on the disk, but remained stable and inactive.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a chance for C-class flares all three days of the period (18-20 May).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux ranged from normal to high levels, with a peak flux of 1,372 pfu at 17/1805 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels, with a brief increase to high levels on day one (18 May). Normal to moderate levels are expected on day two (19 May) and normal to high levels on day three (20 May) due to effects from an expected CIR and CH HSS.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was indicative of continued positive polarity CH HSS effects. Solar wind speeds averaged near 530 km/s for the first half of the period, saw a peak of 565 km/s at 17/2109 UTC, then gradually decreased to average near 485 km/s by the end of the period. Total field strength (Bt) averaged near 5 nT for most of the period, before increasing slightly to end-of-period values near 7 nT. The Bz component fluctuated between +/- 5 nT for the majority of the period before seeing a maximum southward deviation near -6 nT at the end of the period. The phi angle remained in a positive sector for the majority of the period.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced, yet exhibit a waning trend through day one (18 May) and into early on day two (19 May). The later half of day two is expected to become enhanced again as an approaching CIR ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to move into a geoeffective position. Solar wind speeds are expected to increase with passage of the CIR and as the CH HSS rotates into a more Earth-connected position by day three (20 May).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (18 May) due to lingering, but waning CH HSS effects. Day two (19 May) is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels the first half of the day, with an increase to active periods the later half of the day, due to effects associated with CIR and CH HSS effects. Early periods of minor (G1-Minor) storming are likely on day three (20 May) due to the onset of the anticipated positive polarity CH HSS.

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