[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 May 20 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 May 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low and only background flare activity was observed this period. Region 2544 (N23W74, Hsx/alpha) was stable throughout the period and Regions 2546 (S07E02, Cho/beta) and 2547 (S17W33, Bxo/beta) underwent minor decay. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels with a chance for C-class flare activity throughout the forecast period (20-22 May).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,260 pfu observed at 19/1440 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on day one (20 May) due to elevated geomagnetic field activity. Moderate to high levels are expected on days two and three (21-22 May) following an enhanced solar wind environment.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters became slightly enhanced after 20/0200 UTC which was attributed to the onset of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR). Solar wind speeds were steady near 425 km/s until around 20/0200 UTC when speeds began to slowly increase to around 500 km/s. IMF total field strength (Bt) values reached 10 nT and Bz was mostly northward throughout the period. The phi angle was mostly steady in a positive (away) solar sector orientation throughout the period with periods of brief variability observed.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on day one (20 May) due to continued influence of a CIR followed by the transition to a positive polarity CH HSS later in the period. CH HSS influence is expected to persist through the rest of the forecast period (21-22 May). Solar wind speeds are expected to increase above 600 km/s briefly before dropping to the 450-550 km/s range based on STEREO-A MAG and PLASTIC data.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled this period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on day one (20 May) due to the onset of a CIR followed by the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to active levels are expected on day two (21 May) and quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day three (22 May) due to weakening CH HSS effects.

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