[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 May 23 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 May 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and only background flares were observed this period. Region 2546 (S07W42, Cho/beta), the sole spotted region on the visible disk, remained largely unchanged this period. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flare activity over the next three days (23-25 May).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with a chance for high levels over the next three days (23-25 May).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained enhanced this period but began to weaken as the influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) began to wane. Solar wind speeds decreased from initial values near 600 km/s to end-of-period values around 500 km/s. IMF total field strength (Bt) values varied between 4-6 nT and Bz was predominately neutral throughout the period. The phi angle remained steady in a positive (away) solar sector orientation throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced through day one (23 May) as CH HSS effects persist. A slow return to nominal levels is expected on days two and three (24-25 May) as CH HSS influence subsides.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet throughout the period despite waning CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (23 May) as CH HSS effects slowly diminish. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on days two and three (24-25 May) with the return of a nominal solar wind regime.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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