[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jul 01 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jul 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. There are no visible spots on the solar disk. At 30/1625 UTC, a filament eruption was observed (possibly multiple filament eruptions) in STEREO A EUVI 195 imagery. At 30/1700 UTC a series of CMEs including an asymmetric halo CME were observed in coronagraph imagery that were associated with the backside event. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flares throughout the forecast period (01-03 Jul).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with a peak flux of 2,100 pfu at 30/1610 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (01-02 Jul) and moderate to high levels on day three (03 Jul) due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the likely onset of a weak positive polarity CH HSS. At approximately 30/1645 UTC, the phi angle deflected from a negative (towards) sector to a positive (away) orientation. Solar wind speed increased from around 340 km/s to near 420 km/s. Total field ranged from 3 nT to 9 nT while the Bz component was between +6 nT and -7 nT.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at elevated levels due to positive polarity CH HSS influences through day one (01 Jul). Days two and three (02-03 Jul) are forecast to remain elevated due to the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) and subsequent negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the rest of the UTC day on day one (01 Jul). Unsettled to Minor storm (G1) conditions are forecast for days two and three (02-03 Jul) due to the arrival of a CIR, followed by the onset of a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation