[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jul 15 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jul 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels with a few background flares observed. Region 2565 (N05E24, Cho/beta), the largest spot on the disk, exhibited area growth and separate umbra development within the large leader spot. Region 2562 (S06W29, Bxo/beta) developed some weak trailer spots. Regions 2563 (N20W26) and 2564 (N09W12) decayed to plage.

Three new regions developed on the disk and were numbered this period. Regions 2566 (N10E21, Bxo/beta) and 2568 (S15E45, Bxo/beta) both evolved as simple bi-pole groups. Region 2567 (N05E34, Dao/beta) developed rapidly and produced the largest event of the period, a B7/Sf observed at 15/0512 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares throughout the forecast period (15-17 Jul).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with a peak flux of 4,181 pfu observed at 14/1800 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on days one through three (15-17 Jul) in response to elevated wind speeds from CH HSS activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels for the forecast period (15-17 Jul).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected the continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds began the period at about 550 km/s, gradually climbed to near 590 km/s by 14/2100 UTC and then sharply increased to about 650 km/s. Wind speeds ended the period averaging about 650 km/s and recorded a peak speed of 742 km/s at 15/0905 UTC.

Total magnetic field strength ranged between 2-8 nT while the Bz component was variable between +/- 6 nT. The phi angle remained in a predominately positive orientation throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remained enhanced on day one (15 Jul) before trending towards ambient conditions over days two and three (16-17 Jul) as CH HSS influence wanes.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to elevated wind speeds and periods of sustained negative Bz associated with CH HSS activity.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Jul) due to continued CH HSS influence. Quiet to unsettled conditions should prevail on day two (16 Jul) as CH HSS influence wanes. Day three (17 Jul) will likely observe quiet conditions as an ambient solar wind regime takes hold.

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