[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Aug 06 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Aug 06 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low with only B-class flare activity. Region 2572 (N13W52, Dho/beta) exhibited consolidation in its leader spots and growth in its trailer spots. The other spotted region on the visible disk, Region 2571 (N12E03, Cro/beta) was relatively stable and unremarkable. No Earth directed CMEs were observed during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels over the next three days (06-08 Aug) with a slight chance for C-class flares.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to high levels for days one through three (06-08 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period (06-08 Aug).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated continued influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed was enhanced at 580-660 km/s. Total field strength was steady near 6 nT and the Bz component was variable. The phi angle was positive.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to decrease slightly on days one and two (06-07 Aug) as the current CH HSS effects begin to wane. Enhanced conditions are expected on day three (08 Aug) as an isolated equatorial CH HSS becomes geoeffective.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached active levels due to CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and two (06-07 Aug). Unsettled to active conditions are expected on day three (08 Aug) with isolated minor storm (G1) periods likely as an equatorial, positive polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective.

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