[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Aug 08 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Aug 08 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate (R1-Minor) levels due to an isolated M1 flare observed at 07/1444 UTC from an unnumbered region beyond the southwest limb. A C8/Sf flare occurred at 07/1509 UTC from Region 2573 (N04E65, Dso/beta) and 2574 (N08E78, Dso/beta). Region 2571 (N12W25, Dai/beta-gamma) showed slight areal growth and increased magnetic complexity. The region produced a C5 flare at 07/2232 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class (R1-Minor) flares over the next three days (08-10 Aug).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of 10,111 pfu at 07/1600 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to high levels for days one through three (08-10 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated waning influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed decreased gradually from near 550 km/s to near 490 km/s. Total field strength was steady near 4-5 nT and the Bz component was variable. The phi angle was positive.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to reflect enhanced conditions throughout the forecast period (08-10 Aug) due to the influences of an equatorial CH HSS on day one and a northern pole connected CH HSS on day three.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached active levels due to CH HSS influences.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (08 Aug) with isolated minor storm (G1) periods likely as an equatorial, positive polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on days two and three (09-10 Aug) due the influence of an extension of the northern polar CH HSS.

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