[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Aug 15 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Aug 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Newly numbered Region 2578 (N08E67, Axx/alpha) produced multiple C1 flares during the period. The remaining three numbered sunspot groups were stable and unremarkable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed, although there was a large eruption from the NE limb associated with a far-side event.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low with a chance for more C-class activity on days one through three (15-17 Aug).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels with a maximum flux of 10,062 pfu observed at 14/1655 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels all three days of the forecast period (15-17 Aug), with a brief decrease possible on 15-16 Aug as a recurrent high speed solar wind stream becomes geoeffective. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind speed, measured at the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected ambient background conditions. Wind speed declined from approximately 330 km/s to period ending values near 380 km/s. Bz was mostly positive or neutral, with only occasional, short-lived negative episodes. Bt remained at or below 5 nT and the Phi angle was positive most of the period.

Forecast: A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective late on 15 Aug to early on 16 Aug, although there is a chance it may pass south of the ecliptic without interacting with Earth, as WSA-Enlil suggests. At this time, confidence in the model solution is not high enough to exclude the possibility of geoeffectiveness, so the geospace forecast reflects the high speed stream influence.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to begin quiet and end at active levels, with a chance for a minor storm period, as the anticipated high speed solar wind stream arrives late on 15 August. 16 August will be characterized by disturbed conditions, beginning with G1 minor storm levels early and gradually subsiding to mostly active to unsettled levels. As mentioned in the previous paragraph, there is a chance the high speed stream could pass to our south, resulting in mostly quiet to unsettled conditions. Confidence in that model solution is not high enough, however, to preclude the G1 (minor geomagnetic storm) Watch condition.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation