[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Aug 16 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Aug 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. No notable growth was noted among the numbered regions on the visible disk. Region 2575 (N14W20, Bxo/beta), Region 2577 (N04W15, Cro/beta), and Region 2576 (S12W10, Cro/beta) all exhibited gradual decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

An eruptive prominence took place from the NE limb (N28E90) between 15/1541-1721 UTC, as reported by USAF solar observatories and as observed in SDO/AIA imagery. The EPL was associated with a CME first clearly seen in SOHO/LASCO-C2 imagery at 15/1736 UTC. Analysis indicated the CME was not Earth-directed, and no additional CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a chance for C-class flares all three days (16-18 Aug).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued at high levels and reached a max flux of 9,574 pfu at 15/1605 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at high levels on day one (16 Aug), with a chance of decreasing to normal to moderate levels from electron redistribution associated with anticipated CH HSS effects. Days two and three (17-18 Aug) are likely to experience moderate to high levels due to lingering CH HSS effects.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected mostly ambient solar wind conditions. Total field strength ranged between 4-8 nT with the Bz component reaching a maximum southward flux of -5 nT. Solar wind speeds ranged between 300-340 km/s. Phi angel was predominantly oriented in the positive (away from the Sun) sector.

Forecast: An enhancement in the solar wind from a negative polarity CH HSS is anticipated on day one (16 Aug). Enhancements are likely to wane on day two (17 Aug) and return to near-background levels by day three (18 Aug).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet until the anticipated arrival of the negative polarity CH HSS on day one (16 Aug). Conditions of unsettled to active, with an isolated period of G1 (Minor) levels, are likely during the CH HSS onset on day one (16 Aug). A decrease to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on days two and three (17-18 Aug) as the CH HSS effects wane.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation