[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Aug 17 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Aug 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. All numbered regions were simple and relatively inactive or in gradual decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

An approximately 15 degree long filament centered near N25W70 erupted from the Sun as observed in GONG/H-alpha network imagery between about 16/1400-1500 UTC. Analysis of available SDO/AIA imagery indicated the plasma likely escaped the Suns gravity and an associated CME may be present. Analysis of COR 2 imagery from STEREO A did not indicate any apparent Earth-directed component the event.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low, with a decreasing chance of C-class flares days one and two (17-18 Aug), and a slight chance for C-class flares on day three (19 Aug) due to an overall decaying pattern of all regions on the visible disk.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels, with a max flux reached of 5,550 pfu at 16/1350 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels days one and two (17-18 Aug) and decreasing to normal to moderate levels on day three (19 Aug) due to continuing electron redistribution from CH HSS influences.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, indicated slightly disturbed conditions. Total magnetic field strength averaged around 8 nT with a peak flux of 12 nT and maximum southward deflection of Bz of 12 nT at 16/2018 UTC. Wind speeds trended upwards with a peak speed around 420 km/s by the periods end. Phi began the period in the positive sector and oscillated between the negative and positive sectors after 16/2000 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain disturbed on day one (17 Aug) with a possible additional enhancement from a recurrent SSBC on day two (18 Aug). Day three (19 Aug) is likely to observed further enhancement from the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one and two (17-18 Aug). Day three (19 Aug) is likely to observed isolated periods of active conditions in response to the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS.

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