[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Aug 18 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Aug 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2578 (N09E25, Cro/beta) exhibited minor growth, adding penumbral area to its leader spot. The other two spotted active regions continued a gradual decaying trend. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low, with chance for C-class flares on day one (18 Aug) which is likely to decrease to a slight chance on days two and three (19-20 Aug).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux decreased to normal to moderate levels due to redistribution from interaction with an enhanced IMF. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (18-19 Aug) and decrease to normal levels from anticipated CH HSS effects on day three (20 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, were slightly enhanced. Total field strength ranged from 3-9 nT. The Bz component was predominantly southward with a maximum southward deflection of -4 nT. Solar wind speeds were between 375-450 km/s, with a staggered decreasing trend observed over the past 24 hours. Phi was oriented in the negative sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are likely to remain at or near background levels on days one (18 Aug). An enhancement in the solar wind from the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS is anticipated on day two (19 Aug) and is expected to persist through day three (19-20 Aug).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Aug). Day two (19 Aug) will likely observe periods of active in response to the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. As the CH HSS effects persist into day three (20 Aug), active conditions are likely to continue.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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