[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Aug 29 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Aug 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels due to C-class activity from Region 2583 (N13W60, Dao/beta) to include a C2/Sf observed at 29/0346 UTC. Region 2583 was mostly stable and Region 2582 (N08W61, Cao/beta) exhibited minor decay this period. The remaining regions were in slight decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (29-31 Aug).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 2,161 pfu observed at 28/1605 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period. Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach high levels on day one (29 Aug) followed by normal levels on days two and three (30-31 Aug) in response to enhanced geomagnetic field activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were steady at background levels throughout the period. Solar wind speeds slowly decreased from 400 km/s to 320 km/s, then increased to 350 km/s late in the period. Bt was steady near 4 nT for most of the period then increased to about 7 nT late in the period. The Bz component was predominately northward to +4 nT with a southward tendency to -4 nT late in the period. Phi angle orientation was predominately negative with a sector change to positive observed about 29/1000 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced beginning late on day one through day three (29-31 Aug) due to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds around 500-550 km/s are anticipated as this high speed solar wind stream passes Earth.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet throughout the period under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels late on day one through early on day two (29-30 Aug) due to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (31 Aug) as CH HSS influence begins to wane.

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