[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Sep 09 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Sep 09 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The largest flares of the period were a B8/Sf at 08/1917 UTC from Region 2585 (N09W43, Eko/beta-gamma-delta) and a B7 at 09/0323 UTC from Region 2588 (N13W26, Bxo/beta). Region 2585 exhibited separation in its intermediate spot area and minor growth in its trailer spots. Separation was observed in the leading and trailing spots of Region 2588. Region 2589 (N15E06, Cro/beta) appeared to be in a slow growth phase. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares for the forecast period (09-11 Sep).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater the 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with a maximum flux of 14,152 pfu observed at 08/1545 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels all three days (09-11 Sep). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Solar wind speed ranged from 417 km/s to 483 km/s. Total field ranged from 3 and 5 nT while the Bz component was variable between +/-4 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a predominantly positive (away) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at or near nominal levels for the next two days (09-10 Sep). By midday on day three (11 Sep), there is a chance that a southern polar extension CH HSS could become geoeffective enhancing the solar wind. The HSS showed up in STEREO A MAG and PLASTIC data with solar wind speed enhancements to near 650 km/s. However, the extension is approximately 10 degrees further south than last rotation. Any enhancement would likely be in the 450-550 km/s range.

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet through the rest of the UTC day on day one and continue through day two (09-10 Sep). By midday on day three (11 Sep), there is the possibility of connecting with a southern polar extension CH HSS. Unsettled to active levels are expected with the arrival.

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