[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Sep 11 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Sep 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. The largest flare of the period was a B9/Sf at 10/1922 UTC from Region 2591 (N05E10, Dao/beta). Slight growth was observed in Region 2591 while slight decay was observed in the trailing spots of Regions 2585 (N08W71, Eko/beta-delta) and 2589 (N15W21, Dao/beta). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares throughout the forecast period (11-13 Sep).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater the 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels with a maximum flux of 7,040 pfu observed at 11/1200 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on day one (11 Sep) decreasing to normal to moderate levels on days two and three (12-13 Sep) due to electron redistribution. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were nominal. Solar wind speeds were between 355 km/s and 405 km/s. Total field was steady between 2 and 5 nT while the Bz component was between +/-3 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a predominantly positive (away) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced late on day one (11 Sep) as a southern polar extension, negative polarity CH HSS is likely to become geoeffective. Minor solar wind enhancements are likely with solar wind speeds approaching 550 km/s. A slow return to a nominal wind regime is expected later on 13 Sep.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet throughout the period under a nominal solar wind environment.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet levels through mid to late on day one (11 Sep). Unsettled to active conditions are expected late on day one through day two (11-12 Sep) due to the anticipated influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for day three (13 Sep) as CH HSS influence begins to subside.

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