[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Sep 14 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Sep 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2591 (N04W30, Cso/beta) exhibited slight decay and was inactive. Region 2589 (N14W60, Cso/beta) continued to show dissipation in its trailer spots, while Region 2590 (N06W80, Bxo/beta) grew in total spot count, but remained inactive. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flares throughout the forecast period (14-16 Sep).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with a maximum flux of 1,290 pfu observed at 13/1635 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to high levels for the forecast period (14-16 Sep). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Solar wind speed began the period near 280 km/s, then began a gradual decrease to end the period near 340 km/s. Total field values were between 5nT and 7 nT, while the Bz component was variable with a maximum southward deflection to near -6 nT. Phi angle was positive until near 14/0000 UTC when it switched to a negative orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at nominal levels for day one and most of day two (14-15 Sep). A slight enhancement is possible near midday on day two as a negative polarity CH HSS moves into a potentially geoeffective position. Conditions are likely to remain enhanced as another CH HSS moves into position by the end of day three (16 Sep).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to see mostly quiet conditions on day one (14 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels for days two and three (15-16 Sep).

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