[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Sep 15 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Sep 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Regions 2589 (N12W77, Hsx/alpha) and 2591 (N04W45, Axx/alpha) both exhibited decay and remained inactive. Region 2592 (N16E65, Bxo/beta) was numbered during the period as it rotated into view from around the east limb, but was inactive.

Other activity included a CME off the east limb, first visible at 14/2336 UTC in LASCO C2 imagery. However, the CME appears to be associated with far side activity noted in STEREO Ahead EUVI imagery near the same time. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flares throughout the forecast period (15-17 Sep).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with a maximum flux of 2,066 pfu observed at 14/1400 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to high levels for the forecast period (15-17 Sep). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Solar wind speed began the period near 350 km/s, then began a gradual decrease to end the period near 325 km/s. Total field values were between 5 nT and 9 nT. The Bz component was southward for most of the summary period, averaging near -5 nT. Phi angle was in a positive orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected be slightly enhanced on days one and two (15-16 Sep) as a negative polarity southern extension CH HSS moves into a potentially geoeffective position. Conditions are likely to remain enhanced as another CH HSS moves into position by day three (17 Sep).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the forecast period (15-17 Sep) due to a series of negative polarity coronal hole high speed streams.

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