[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Sep 22 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Sep 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2595 (N08, L=106) was responsible for nearly all of the reported flare activity during the period as it rotated off of the western limb, the largest being a C5 flare at 22/0547 UTC. Region 2593 (N06W41, Dai/beta) was mostly inactive and exhibited slight decay and separation between its leader and trailer spots. Newly numbered Region 2596 (N06W47, Cao/beta) emerged during the period but was stable and inactive. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery during the reporting period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a chance for C-class flares throughout the forecast period (22-24 Sep).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a peak flux of 1366 pfu, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on all three days (22-24 Sep) of the forecast period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to reflect the influence of a waning, negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed decreased from beginning values near 550 km/s, to end-of-period speeds near 450 km/s. Total field was steady between 3 to 5 nT, while the Bz component was variable between +/- 3 nT. The phi angle was in a negative orientation. Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain slightly enhanced, but show a waning trend all three days (22-24 Sep), as CH HSS influence decreases.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled levels, with chance for active conditions, are expected on days one and two (22-23 Sep) as effects from a negative polarity CH HSS continue to wane. A further decrease to mostly quiet conditions is expected by day three (24 Sep) as CH HSS influences taper off.

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