[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Sep 23 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Sep 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels due to C-class flare activity early in the period from departed Region 2595 (N08, L=106). Old Region 2595 produced the largest event of period, a C2 flare observed at 22/1916 UTC. Activity was restricted to background activity thereafter. Regions 2593 (N09W53, Eao/beta) and 2596 (N05W67, Cao/beta) were inactive during the period. Region 2593 exhibited some leader spot growth while trailer spot decay was observed in Region 2596.

A long-duration B6 flare was observed at 23/0525 UTC. The source location was in an area of enhanced plage in the vicinity of decayed Region 2592 (N12, L=031). New Region 2597 (S13E06, Cao/beta) was numbered this period. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a chance for C-class flares throughout the forecast period (23-25 Sep).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 591 pfu observed at 22/1525 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on all three days (23-25 Sep) of the forecast period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of an ambient solar wind regime. Solar wind speed decreased from initial speeds near 475 km/s to end-of-period speeds at about 415 km/s. Total field strength was variable between 2-6 nT, while the Bz component was mostly positive to 6 nT. The phi angle was in a steady negative orientation through about 23/0700 UTC when some rotation to a positive orientation was observed. Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to be at mostly background levels for the first two days (23-24 Sep). By day three (25 Sep) an equatorial, positive polarity CH HSS is expected to move into a geoeffective position enhancing solar wind parameters ahead of onset.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast: Mostly quiet levels are expected on days one and two (23-24 Sep) under a background solar wind environment. A slight increase to quiet to unsettled conditions is expected by day three (25 Sep) with the approach of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS.

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