[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Sep 24 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Sep 24 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels with only background flare activity observed. Both Regions 2593 (N07W66, Eao/beta) and 2596 (N05W81, Cao/beta) exhibited little change as they approached the west limb. Region 2597 (S13W07, Dsc/beta-gamma) showed trailer and intermediate spot growth with evidence of a mixed polarity configuration within its intermediate spots. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a chance for C-class flares throughout the forecast period (24-26 Sep).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 517 pfu observed at 23/1625 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on all three days (24-26 Sep) of the forecast period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained at background levels. Total magnetic field strength ranged from 5-7 nT while the Bz component was primarily northward to 6 nT throughout the period. Solar wind speeds continued a gradual decreasing trend through the period with speeds declining from 400 km/s to about 375 km/s. Phi angle was in a predominately negative orientation over the past 24 hours. Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to be at near-background levels on day one (24 Sep). A minor enhancement in density and total field strength is likely on day two (25 Sep) from an anticipated SSBC. Day three (26 Sep) is expected to observe further enhancement from the onset of a recurrent, trans-equatorial, positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Quiet levels are expected on day one (24 Sep). Quiet to unsettled levels are likely on day two (25 Sep) from an anticipated SSBC. Unsettled to active conditions are likely on day three (26 Sep) due to the onset of a recurrent, trans-equatorial, positive polarity CH HSS enhancing the near-Earth space environment.

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