[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Sep 27 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Sep 27 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels as Region 2597 (S13W46, Dao/beta-gamma) produced a C1/Sf flare at 27/0748 UTC, as well as several low-level B-class flares. The region exhibited separation between its trailer and leader spots, with consolidation in its leader spots, and overall decay in its intermediate spots.

A narrow CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery, beginning at 26/2348 UTC. It appears to have a mostly westerly trajectory and should not effect Earth. However, further analysis will be accomplished when imagery fills in. No other CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flare activity throughout the forecast period (27-29 Sep).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (27-28 Sep). Moderate to high flux levels are expected on day three (29 Sep) due to an enhanced solar wind environment from a geoeffective CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to reflect possible influence of a coronal hole high speed stream, located on/just beyond the west limb. Total magnetic field strength ranged between 6-11 nT, while the Bz component varied between +6 nT and -9 nT. Wind speeds exhibited an increase throughout the period, with beginning speeds near 400 km/s gradually increasing to near 525 km/s by the end of the period. The Phi angle was in a mostly positive orientation. Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced through the remainder of day one (27 Sep) as CH HSS effects persist. Following a very slight decrease in activity early on day two (28 Sep), a recurrent positive polarity CH HSS is expected to move into a geoeffective position. This feature produced solar wind speeds near 800 km/s last rotation and is expected to produce similar results as it becomes geoeffective over the next three days.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at active to minor (G1-Minor) storm levels, with high latitude locations observing (G3-Strong) storm conditions, due to CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor (G1-Minor) storm levels until near the end of day one (27 Sep) as CH HSS effects persist. Isolated periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels, with a slight chance for G3 (Strong) conditions, are possible early on day two, as well as day three (29 Sep), with the continued effects from the CH HSS.

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