[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Sep 28 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Sep 28 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity returned to very low levels, with only B-class flares observed during the period. Region 2597 (S14W60, Dao/beta) briefly developed a few intermediate spots, but nearly all quickly dissipated by periods end. A disappearing solar filament (DSF) centered near S26W49, was observed in SDO/AIA 304 and GONG H-Alpha imagery from 27/2256 UTC to 27/2354 UTC. Analysis will be accomplished to determine if there is a CME associated with this eruption as LASCO coronagraph imagery becomes available.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (28-30 Sep).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a max flux of 6,692 pfu at 27/1715 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels, with a chance for very high levels, the next two days (28-29 Sep) as CH HSS effects persist. Day three (30 Sep) is expected to reach high to very high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the onset of an expected positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed gradually increased throughout the period, reaching speeds near 740 km/s, before decreasing slightly to end the period near 680 km/s. The total IMF strength ranged primarily between 2 to 11 nT. The Bz component oscillated between north and south orientations, but had several prolonged periods of southward direction. The maximum southward deflection observed was -7 nT. Density remained slightly enhanced, and the phi angle was in a predominantly positive orientation, with isolated oscillations into a negative orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced for all three days of the forecast period (28-30 Sep) as CH HSS effects persist.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: Geomagnetic activity ranged from unsettled to major storm levels (G2-Moderate) due to CH HSS influences.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach minor (G1-Minor) storm levels, with isolated periods of major (G2-Moderate) storm conditions, all three days of the forecast period (28-30 Sep) due to CH HSS effects. There is a chance for an isolated period of severe (G3-Strong) storming on day two (29 Sep) as the solar wind speed reaches peak levels, and a slight chance for isolated periods of G3 storming on days one and three (28 and 30 Sep).

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