[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Sep 30 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Sep 30 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2597 (S14W83, Hsx/alpha) continued to decay as it rotated towards the SW limb, leaving a nearly spotless solar disk. Analysis of the CME first observed in SOHO/LASCO imagery departing the SW limb at 29/2012 UTC, indicated a trajectory well west of the Sun-Earth plane. No impacts at Earth are expected from this CME. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels all three days of the forecast period (30 Sep-02 Oct).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at mostly high levels and reached a max flux of 25,750 pfu at 30/1140 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on day one (30 Sep) and high to very high levels on days two and three (01-02 Oct), due to effects associated with the CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed averaged near 700 km/s, reaching peak speeds just over 800 km/s. Total field strength decreased over the period, from 7 nT to 4 nT by the end of the period. The Bz component primarily ranged between */- 5 nT, but saw a maximum southward deflection to -8 nT. The phi angle was positive (away from the Sun).

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain elevated for days one and two (30 Sep-01 Oct), but will likely begin to decrease by day three (2 Oct) as the positive polarity CH HSS moves out of its current geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at mostly active levels with an isolated G1 (Minor) storming period due to elevated solar wind speeds extended periods of southward oriented Bz.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to G1 (Minor) storm levels, with an isolated period of G2 (Moderate) storming likely, on day one (30 Sep) as CH HSS influence continues. Weakening CH HSS effects on day two (01 Oct) are expected, returning the field to mostly active levels, with a few isolated periods of G1 storming possible. CH HSS influences are anticipated to weaken further by day three (02 Oct), decreasing activity to primarily unsettled to active conditions, with a chance for isolated periods of G1 storming.

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