[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Oct 06 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Oct 06 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained very low. Region 2598 (N13E10, Dao/beta) underwent some spot consolidation within its leader spots as well as its trailer spots, and remained mostly inactive throughout the period. Region 2599 (S15E39, Cko/beta) remained mostly unchanged and was inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels, with a chance for C-class flares all three days (06-08 Oct).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels, with a peak flux of 6,832 pfu at 05/1540 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels all three days (06-08 Oct). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a return to near background conditions. Solar wind speed decreased from near 525 km/s to just under 450 km/s by periods end. Total field strength fluctuated between 1 to 4 nT, while the Bz component varied slightly between +/- 4 nT. The phi angle was predominantly positive (away from Sun) with occasional oscillations into the negative sector.

Forecast: A return to ambient, background conditions is expected on all three days (06-08 Oct) of the forecast period.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on all three days (06-08 Oct) following a return to an ambient, background solar wind regime.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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