[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2017 Dec 11 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2017 Dec 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. A single B6 flare was observed at 11/0052 UTC from an unnumbered region around the E limb. New Region 2691 (S03E33, Axx/alpha) was inactive and unimpressive. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels over the next three days (11-13 Dec).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with a maximum flux of 2,473 pfu observed at 10/1550 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next two days (11-12 Dec), increasing to moderate to high levels by day three (13 Dec). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels for the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated ambient background conditions through about 11/0245 UTC. Solar wind speeds were steady between 325-350 km/s, Bt was steady near 4 nT while the Bz component was variable between +/- 3 nT.

After 11/0245 UTC, solar wind parameters indicated a possible CIR in advance of an anticipated recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Wind speeds gradually increased to near 425 km/s, Bt reached a maximum of near 12 nT while the Bz component varied between +6 to -10 nT. Phi angle was primarily oriented in a positive sector.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to be enhanced throughout the forecast period (11-13 Dec) due to the anticipated arrival of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds are likely to reach approximately 500 km/s with total field (Bt) measurements of 10-12 nT based on Stereo-A and recurrent data.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one through three (11-13 Dec) as a recurrent, positive polarity, polar-connected CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position.

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