[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2017 Dec 24 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2017 Dec 24 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained very low. Region 2692 (N18W03, Eai/beta) remained relatively inactive. Slight decay was observed near the leader and trailer spots while some minor growth was noted in the intermediate spots. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available chronograph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels over the next three days (24-26 Dec) with a slight chance for C-class activity.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels all three days (24-26 Dec). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, suggested the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength continued to increase through the day with a peak value of 15 nT. The Bz component was variable with extended periods of southward Bz observed near the end of of the reporting period. Solar wind speeds steadily increased after 24/0000 UTC from around 350 km/s to near 485 km/s by 24/1200 UTC. Phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to continue at enhanced levels over days one and two (24-25 Dec) due to influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. A trend towards background levels is expected over day three (26 Dec).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (24-25 Dec) due to effects from a negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (26 Dec) as CH HSS effects begin to subside.

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