[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Feb 14 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Feb 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2699 (S07W51, Dsi/beta) underwent slight decay and was inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low, with a decreasing chance of C-class flares all three days (14-16 Feb) and a slight chance for M-class flares on days one and two.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal levels on days one and two (14-15 Feb) and increase to normal to moderate levels on day three (16 Feb) due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a nominal solar wind regime. Total field strength ranged primarily from 2 to 6 nT and the Bz component underwent weak deviations. Solar wind speed was steady at 300 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly negative.

Forecast: A slow solar wind regime is expected to continue until the later half of day one (14 Feb) due to an approaching CME and CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS are expected to cause enhancements. The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced on days two and three (15-16 Feb) due to continuing influences from the CME and CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain primarily quiet on day one (14 Feb). Later in the day, unsettled and active conditions are expected, with a chance for G1 (Minor) due to possible CME arrival. Days two and three (15-16 Feb) are expected to be at unsettled and active levels, with isolated periods of G1 geomagnetic storming likely, due to continued CME and CH HSS effects.

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