[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Feb 15 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Feb 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained very low. Region 2699 (S08W60, Cao/beta) continued to decay as it decreased in areal coverage and spot count, and lost penumbra in its trailer spots. No new CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low all three days (15-17 Feb).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal levels on day one (15 Feb) and increase to normal to moderate levels on day two (16 Feb), and reach high levels by day three (17 Feb) due to anticipated CH HSS influences.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to be indicative of a nominal solar wind regime. Total field ranged from 1 to 7 nT, The Bz component was mostly southward but at benign values. Solar wind increased from 300 to 370 km/s. The phi angle fluctuated between sectors but settled in a positive orientation toward the end of the period.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to become enhanced late on day one (15 Feb) due to the onset of a CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS. Days two and three (16-17 Feb) are expected to remain enhanced as CH HSS effects continue.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily quiet to unsettled, with isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storming likely on days one and two (15-16 Feb), due to influences from the CIR and subsequent CH HSS. Day three is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods as CH HSS effects continue.

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