[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Mar 04 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Mar 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the forecast period (04-06 Mar).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with a peak flux of 1,459 pfu at 03/2050 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to high levels on days one and two (04-05 Mar) before dropping to normal to moderate levels on day three (06 Mar). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, suggested the passage of a SSBC and transitioned to weak influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) was periodically elevated above 10 nT between 03/1915 - 04/0130 UTC, with a peak value of 14 nT at 04/0124 UTC. Bt decreased below 5 nT after 04/0445 UTC. Bz was variable with a brief period of -11 nT observed at 04/0121 UTC. Beginning at the time, a noted increase in wind speed from 350 km/s to around 425 km/s was observed. Wind speeds continued to slowly increase to a peak of 461 km/s at 04/0525 UTC. Phi angle transitioned from the negative sector into the positive sector around 03/2200 UTC.

Forecast: Weak enhancements from the influence of the northern polar coronal hole extension are expected to persist through day one (04 Mar). A return to mostly nominal conditions is likely by day two (05 Mar).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Mar) due to weak influence from the extension of the northern polar CH HSS. A return to mostly quiet conditions is expected on days two and three (05-06 Mar).

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