[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Mar 10 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Mar 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the forecast period (10-12 Mar).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels throughout the forecast period (10-12 Mar). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected the influence of a transient feature. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) was slightly disturbed after 09/1720 UTC, with a continued increase after 09/2245 UTC to a peak of 15 nT. A sustained and steady signature, typical of a mag cloud, continued through the end of the reporting period. The Bz component trended southward after 09/2330 UTC to a maximum southward value of -12 nT at 10/0056 UTC. Afterward, a gradual rotation towards 0 nT was observed over the next 12 hours. Solar wind speeds were between 350-450 km/s through the period, with a gradual decline from peak values around 10/0230 UTC to near 400 km/s by the periods end. Phi began the period in the positive sector and rotated into the negative sector after 10/0000 UTC.

Forecast: Enhancements in the solar wind parameters are likely to slowly wane on day one (10 Mar) and into day two (11 Mar) as the transient influence moves past Earths orbit. Ambient solar wind conditions are expected on day three (12 Mar).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached active levels in response to sustained periods of southward Bz with a transient feature in the solar wind.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 10 Mar due to continued enhancements in the solar wind. A decrease to unsettled levels on day two (11 Mar) and quiet levels by day three (12 Mar) is likely as the near-Earth space environment transitions back to an ambient solar wind regime.

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