[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Mar 18 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Mar 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2702 (N19W60, Bxo/Beta) began to show signs of decay since emerging last period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels over the next three days (18-20 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum flux of 7,560 pfu observed at 17/1900 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels each of the next three days (18-20 Mar) following a period of enhanced solar wind. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the diminishing influence of a CH HSS. Solar wind speeds were variable and reached a peak of 545 km/s mid-period. Total field strength values normalized following a mid-period enhancement and the Bz component ranged between +/-3 nT. The phi angle was variable throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced on day one (18 Mar) due to diminishing CH HSS influence. Solar wind parameters are expected to gradually return to background levels over the course of days two and three (19-20 Mar) as CH HSS influence subsides and a nominal solar wing regime prevails.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet and unsettled this period under continued, but weakening CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet and unsettled over the next three days (18-20 Mar) under waning CH HSS influence.

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