[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Mar 20 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Mar 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2702 (N19W80) decayed to plage. No CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low all three days (20-22 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels, with a maximum flux of approx 19,500 pfu at 19/2120 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on day one (20 Mar) due to CH HSS influences. The electron flux is expected to decrease to normal to high levels on day two (21 Mar) and increase to moderate to high levels by day three (22 Mar) due to effects of CIR followed by onset of another CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of the waning influences of an isolated, negative polarity CH HSS. Total field strength ranged primarily from 4 to 6 nT. The Bz component underwent mainly weak deviations. Solar wind speed slowly and unsteadily decreased from just over 525 km/s early in the period to around 450 km/s by the periods end. The phi angle was negative.

Forecast: Solar wind speed is anticipated to continue an unsteady decline on day one (20 Mar) as effects from the isolated, negative polarity CH HSS continue to wane. Day two (21 Mar) is likely to see the return of a enhanced conditions due to effects of a passing CIR ahead of another CH HSS. Solar wind speed is expected to elevate further on day three (22 Mar) as the western branch of a northward extension of the south polar CH HSS rotates into geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (20 Mar) due to waning CH HSS influences. Day two (21 Mar) is expected to see an escalation in responses to the unsettled and active levels, with a chance for G1 conditions, due to CIR and early-stage CH HSS effects. The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily unsettled to active, with a period of G1 conditions likely on day three (22 Mar) as CH HSS effects peak.

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