[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2018 Apr 02 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2018 Apr 02 0443 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 March - 01 April 2018

Solar activity was mostly at very low levels with the exception of 30 Mar when an isolated C4/Sf flare was observed at 30/0804 UTC from Region 2703 (S08, L=193, class/area Axx/010 on 31 Mar). Associated with the flare was a Type II radio sweep (805 km/s) and a coronal mass ejection (CME) off the east limb first observed at 30/0840 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels throughout the period with a maximum flux of 43,750 pfu observed at 28/2045 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity began the period under continued effects from a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speed ranged from approximately 450-550 km/s on 26-27 Mar with total field between 2-8 nT. By 28-29 Mar, solar wind speeds slowly returned to nominal levels while a solar sector boundary crossing was observed around 29/0710 UTC into a positive sector. Solar wind speed showed a slight increase in speed to 380-480 km/s from 30 Mar-01 Apr with total field variable between 2-9 nT suggesting possible intermittent connections with a northern polar extension positive polarity CH HSS. The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with periods of unsettled activity observed on 26-27 Mar and again on 31 Mar.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 April - 28 April 2018

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a slight chance for a C-class flare from 02-10 Apr due to potential further activity from Region 2703. Very low levels are expected through the rest of the period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 02-04 and 12-28 Apr due to CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 05-07, 10-16, 18-23 Apr with G1 (Minor) storm levels likely on 12 Apr due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

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