[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Apr 09 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Apr 09 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity continued at very low levels under a spotless solar disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (09-11 Apr).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (09-11 Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected mostly nominal solar wind conditions. Solar wind speed averaged 360 km/s until approximately 09/0700 UTC when it climbed to a high of 437 km/s. Total field remained at or below 5 nT until 09/0400 UTC when a slight enhancement was observed that increased Bt to 9 nT. Bz dropped as low as -7 nT in conjunction with the enhanced Bt. Phi was positive until 08/2300 UTC when a SSBC was observed, toggling phi into a negative orientation.

Forecast: Weak enhancements will likely be observed during the remainder of day one (09 Apr) due to aforementioned SSBC. Further enhancements are likely early on day two (10 Apr) due to the onset of a trans-equatorial, negative polarity CH HSS. Enhancements from the CH HSS are expected to continue through day three (11 Apr).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to unsettled on day one (09 Apr). An increase to active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels is likely on day two and three (10-11 Apr) due to the anticipated onset of a CH HSS.

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