[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Apr 14 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Apr 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Slight decay was observed in Region 2704 (N12E30, Axx/alpha) over the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels throughout the forecast period (14-16 Apr).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 21,456 pfu at 13/2055 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels each of the next three days (14-16 Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to be in decline over the period from a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed decreased from approximately 450 km/s to near 400 km/s. Total field ranged from 2-8 nT while the Bz component was between +/- 5 nT. Phi angle was mostly oriented in a negative (towards) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be at or near nominal levels over the next three days (14-16 Apr).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Generally quiet conditions are expected to prevail over the next three days (14-16 Apr) under a nominal solar wind regime.

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