[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2018 Apr 16 16:10 UTC

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2018 Apr 16 0126 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 09 - 15 April 2018

Solar activity was at very low levels with a few isolated B-class flares observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 09 Apr and high levels on 10-15 Apr. The largest flux of the period was 25,451 pfu observed at 12/2155 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels from 09-13 Apr due to negative polarity CH HSS effects. An isolated G1 (Minor) storm period was observed early on 11 Apr. Quiet conditions were observed on 14-15 Apr.

The period began with solar wind speeds at about 375 km/s, total field (Bt) at about 3 nT, Bz weakly negative to about -3 nT and the phi angle in a positive orientation. Early on the 9th, an SSBC from a positive to a negative orientation occurred coupled with a CIR in advance of a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. Winds speeds gradually increased in near 580 km/s by 11/0700 UTC, Bt peaked at 9 nT on the 11th and the Bz component was variable between +9 nT to -7nT early on 10 Apr. The period ended with wind speeds near 300 km/s coupled with a weak magnetic sturcture.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 16 April - 12 May 2018

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be high levels on 16-30 Apr and 07-12 May due to recurrent CH HSS effects. Normal to moderate levels are expected from 01-06 May.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be unsettled to active levels on 19-20 Apr and 06-10 May due to recurrent CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

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