[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Apr 20 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Apr 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Slight growth was observed in Region 2706 (N04E62, Cao/beta). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels, with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare, throughout the forecast period (20-22 Apr).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 1,200 pfu at 19/1850 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the rest of day one (20 Apr) due to redistribution. A return to moderate to high levels is expected on days two and three (21-22 Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters began the period at background levels with solar wind speed around 280 km/s and total field near 4 nT. At 19/2320 UTC, a weak interplanetary shock was observed at the DSCOVR satellite. Solar wind speed increased from 295 km/s to 333 km/s while total field increased from 2 nT to 6 nT. Total field further increased to a maximum of 23 nT at 20/0516 UTC with the Bz component mostly southward reaching a maximum of -20 nT at 20/0813 UTC. Density reached a peak of 65 p/cm^3 at 20/0607 UTC. Phi angle transitioned from a positive sector to a negative sector at approximately 20/0710 UTC along with an increase in solar wind speed to near 512 km/s by 20/0916 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced through midday on day three (20-22 Apr) as CH HSS effects persist.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet on 19 April. By 20 April, activity increased to active to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels with the arrival of a CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS. G2 (Moderate) storm levels were observed during the 20/0600-0900 and 0900-1200 UTC periods.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels through the rest of day one (20 Apr) due to continued CIR/CH HSS activity. Unsettled to active levels are expected on day two (21 Apr) as CH HSS effects persist. A return to quiet to unsettled levels is expected by day three (22 Apr).

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