[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Apr 25 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Apr 25 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2706 (N02W05, Cao/beta) remained stable and exhibited little change. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for C-class flare activity, over the next three days (25-27 Apr).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 12,300 pfu at 24/1950 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels each of the next three days (25-27 Apr) with a chance of decreasing to normal to moderate levels on day three (27 Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind speed was generally steady around 350-375 km/s throughout the reporting period. Total field ranged from 1 to 6 nT and Bz was variable. Phi angle rotated between positive and negative sectors.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at background levels on day one and most of day two (25-26 Apr). Parameters are expected to become elevated late on day two into day three (27 Apr) with the onset of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be generally quiet over the next two days (25-26 Apr) with the potential for unsettled levels late on day two with the onset of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active levels are anticipated on day three (27 Apr) due to continued CH HSS influences.

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