[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 May 04 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 May 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. An area of enhanced plage developed in the SE quadrant with possible spot development. An asymmetric, partial-halo CME was observed in STEREO-A COR2 and LASCO C2 imagery at 03/1712 UTC and confirmed with visible coronal dimming from STEREO-A EUVI 195 imagery. This CME event originated on the backside of the Sun and is not expected to influence the Sun-Earth line. No additional CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low over the next three days (04-06 May).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 638 pfu observed at 03/2100 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels throughout the forecast period (04-06 May) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of nominal conditions. Solar wind speeds averaged 358 km/s. Total field peaked at 4 nT while the Bz component varied between +/-3 nT. Phi was positive.

Forecast: A slow solar wind regime is expected to continue on days one and two (04-05 May). Starting early on day three (06 May) a solar sector boundary change (SSBC) from a positive to a negative orientation is anticipated. Shortly after the SSBC, a solar wind enhancement associated with a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) in advance of a recurrent, negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) is expected. Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet under a slow solar wind regime.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for days one and two (04-05 May). On day three (06 May), geomagnetic field conditions are expected to be at quiet to active levels, with G1 (Minor) storm conditions likely, in response to the aforementioned CIR/CH HSS onset.

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