[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 May 14 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 May 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2709 (N04, L=036) decayed to plage. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels all three days (14-16 May).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 12,060 pfu observed at 13/2040 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on days one through three (14-16 May). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels for the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured be the DSCOVR spacecraft, transitioned from a minor enhancement to nominal solar wind conditions. Total magnetic field strength, which peak at 11 nT at 13/1349 UTC, rapidly decreased to 5 nT or below after 13/1430 UTC. Solar wind speeds trended downward from a peak of 464 km/s at 13/2145 UTC to near 400 km/s by the periods end. Phi angle was variable throughout the reporting period, ending in the negative sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be at or near nominal levels for the forecast period (14-16 May).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the forecast period (14-16 May).

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