[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 May 23 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 May 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2710 (N17E46, Bxo/beta) has been stable since rotating onto the disk. A B8 flare was observed at 22/1459 UTC along with several other B-class flares were observed from an area of enhanced brightening beyond the E limb at about N13. This new region is expected to rotate onto the visible disk on or about 25 May. Region 2711 (N05W22, Bxo/beta) was numbered during the period, but was inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low with a chance for C-class activity all three days (23-25 May). The chance for C-class activity is due to potential flare activity from an unnumbered region beyond the NE limb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 954 pfu observed at 22/2025 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase to moderate to high levels all three days (23-25 May) due to an enhanced solar wind environment associated with CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, indicated a weak CIR in advance of the anticipated positive polarity CH HSS, was observed. Wind speeds indicated a slight uptick to about 325 km/s through about 22/1630 UTC and further increased to near 490 km/s through periods end. Total field ranged between 4 to 12 nT while Bz varied between +/-9 nT. The phi angle was predominantly positive during this period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on day one (23 May) as a positive polarity extension off the northern crown CH HSS becomes geoeffective. Based on STEREO-A PLASTIC data, wind speeds are anticipated to increase to near 500 km/s through day two (24 May). By day three (25 May), wind parameters are expected to slowly weaken as the CH HSS moves out of a geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettledlevels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active intervals, on days one and two (23-24 May) under positive polarity CH HSS influence. By day three (25 May), geomagnetic conditions are expected to taper off to predominately quiet levels with isolated unsettled conditions early.

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