[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2018 Jun 11 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2018 Jun 11 0344 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 - 10 June 2018

Solar activity was mostly at very low levels with an isolated C-class flare observed at 06/1100 UTC from Region 2712 (N15, L=176, class/area Csi/080 on 28 May) from just beyond the West limb. The solar disk was spotless from 06-10 Jun. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed during the reporting period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels throughout the period with a maximum flux of 19,491 pfu observed at 06/1705 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels over the period. Solar wind speed was in decline from a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) on 04-05 Jun with solar wind speeds declining from approximately 630 km/s to near 450 km/s while total field ranged from 2 nT to 9 nT. The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels on 04-05 Jun. By midday on 06 Jun, an enhancement in total field was observed reaching a maximum of 11 nT at 07/0635 UTC. The Bz component reached a maximum of -8 nT at 06/1820 UTC. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active levels on 06 Jun and quiet to unsettled levels on 07 Jun. By 08 Jun and through the rest of the period, solar wind speeds were at nominal levels with solar wind speeds at 400 km/s or less and total field at 5 nT or less. Quiet conditions were observed on 08-10 Jun.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 June - 07 July 2018

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a slight chance for isolated C-class flares from 11 Jun-01 Jul with the return of old Regions 2711 (N06, L=288) and 2712 (N15, L=176) to the visible disk.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 11 Jun and again from 28 Jun-07 Jul due to CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled levels on 12-14 Jun and 19 Jun due to weak CH HSS effects. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 27-30 Jun with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels likely on 28-29 Jun due to recurrent CH HSS effects.

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