[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Jun 20 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Jun 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2713 (N05W30, Bxo/beta) showed slight growth and was inactive. Regions 2714 (N08W60, Cao/beta) and 2715 (N07E26, Cro/beta) continued to exhibit growth and produced low-level B-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low, with a slight chance of C-class flares all three days (20-22 June).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on day one (20 Jun) and increase to moderate to high levels on days two and three (21-22 Jun) due to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained indicative of waning CH HSS influences. Total field strength returned to ambient, background levels of 2 to 4 nT. The Bz component underwent weak deviations. Solar wind continued a decreasing trend from near 500 to 450 km/s. The phi angle was positive.

Forecast: Waning CH HSS influences are anticipated to continue through day three (20-22 June) as the extension of the north polar CH HSS rotates away from geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated on day one (20 Jun) due to continuing, but weakening CH HSS influences. Days two and three (21-22 Jun) are likely to see a return to quiet conditions.

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