[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2018 Jul 09 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2018 Jul 09 0254 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 - 08 July 2018

Solar activity was very low levels through most of the reporting period. However, on 06 Jul, A C1 flare was observed at 06/2007 UTC from an area of enhanced flux, as observed in STEREO AHEAD 195 imagery, from around the E. limb. The area later rotated onto the visible disk as spotless plage. Several DSFs were observed on 05 Jul from the NE quadrant, though none were thought to have produced Earth-directed CMEs.

A coronal dimming in the SW quadrant was observed in SDO/AIA 193, around 04/2325 UTC, which was followed by an observation of a slow-moving CME first observed in STEREO AHEAD COR2 imagery beginning around 04/0324 UTC. No clear signature was observed in SOHO LASCO C2 or C3 imagery. Modeling of the event suggested the possibility of an Earth-directed component becoming geoeffective sometime after 09 Jul.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate to high levels on 02-04 Jul and decreased to normal to moderate levels on 05-08 Jul.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. Quiet conditions were observed from 02-04 Jul. A SSBC on 05 Jul increased total magnetic field strength to 12 nT and solar wind speeds to around 450 km/s. The field response increased from quiet to an isolated period of G1 (Minor) storm levels. Wind speeds continued between 400-525 km/s for the remainder of the reporting period; however, only quiet conditions were observed after 06/0300 UTC.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 09 July - 04 August 2018

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to range from normal to high levels. Normal to moderate levels are expected from 09-20 Jul and 01-04 Aug; moderate to high levels are expected from 21-31 Jul. All enhancements in electron flux are anticipated in response to recurrent CH HSSs.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. A slow-moving CME, first observed early on 05 Jul, is forecast to cause active levels on 09 Jul and unsettled levels on 10 Jul. Influences from multiple, recurrent, CH HSSs are expected to increase geomagnetic activity to unsettled levels on 16 Jul, 21 Jul and 24 Jul; active levels are likely on 15 Jul, 20 Jul, 22 Jul; G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on 23 Jul. The remainder of the forecast period is expected to produce quiet levels under nominal solar wind conditions.

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