[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Jul 21 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Jul 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low all three days (21-23 Jul).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels for the forecast period (21-23 Jul). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected a slightly enhanced environment, likely due to weak influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength was between 5-10 nT during the latter half of the reporting period. Bz briefly reached a maximum southward deflection of -9 nT at 21/0626 UTC but mostly fluctuated between +\- 5 nT. Solar wind speeds increased from lows near 400 km/s to maximum of 537 km/s at 21/0216 UTC. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive sector.

Forecast: Solar wind speeds are expected to trend towards nominal levels over day one (21 Jul) and into day two (22 Jul). A solar wind enhancement from a CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS is expected on day three (23 Jul).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one and two (21-22 Jul). An increase to unsettled to active periods are likely on day three (23 Jul) due to the anticipated onset of a CIR ahead of the aforementioned negative polarity CH HSS.

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