[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Jul 23 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Jul 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low all three days (23-25 Jul).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (23-24 Jul) and increase to high levels on day three (25 Jul) in response to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected a trend towards nominal levels over the reporting period. Total magnetic field strength remained below 5 nT. Solar wind speeds steadily decreased from a peak of 525 km/s early in the period to near 440 km/s by the periods end. Phi angle was variable.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced late on day one (23 Jul) due to the onset CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind data from STEREO-A suggest wind speeds of above 600 km/s. Influence from the CH HSS is anticipated to continue through days two and three (24-25 Jul).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach active levels late on day one (23 Jul). As wind speeds increase on day two (24 Jul), G1 (Minor) geomagetic storm levels are likely. Unsettled to active levels are likely over day three (25 Jul) as influence from the CH HSS continues.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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