[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Jul 24 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Jul 24 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low all three days (24-26 Jul).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on day one (24 Jul) and increase to high levels on days two and three (25-26 Jul) in response to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were consistent with CIR effects. The enhancement began near 24/0400Z, when Total field began to increase to a high of 13 nT. The Bz component became volatile and reached a maximum deflection of -11 nT. Solar wind speeds increased to 550 km/s. The phi angle switched to a mostly negative orientation near 24/0300Z.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced on day one (24 Jul) due to the onset CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind data from STEREO-A suggest wind speeds of above 600 km/s. Influence from the CH HSS is anticipated to continue through days two and three (25-26 Jul). Onset of the CH is anticipated following a phi rotation to negative.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is forecast to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels late on day one (24 Jul) due to the anticipated negative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active levels are likely over day two (25 Jul) and unsettled conditions are expected for day three (26 Jul) as influence from the CH HSS continues.

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